The United States is on pace for the steepest single-year decline in murders ever recorded, according to a new analysis of crime data through October 2025.
Crime analyst Jeff Asher’s Real-Time Crime Index (RTCI), which aggregates data from 570 law enforcement agencies covering roughly 115 million Americans, shows murders down nearly 20 percent compared to the same period in 2024.
That drop comes on top of a 13 percent decline from 2023 to 2024, marking a rapid reversal of the surge that followed the pandemic-era crime spike.
Asher’s index points to a 19.8 percent decline in murders through October alone.
Importantly, those figures do not include manslaughter, self-defense homicides, or accidental killings.
The U.S. is set to record its biggest single-year decline in murders on record, according to crime statistics analyst Jeff Asher. pic.twitter.com/T5etR7MOgE
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Violent Crime Falling Across the Board
The good news is not limited to homicides.
The RTCI data show broad-based declines in major categories of violent and property crime:
- Murders: down ~19.8%
- Robberies: down 18.3%
- Aggravated assaults: down 7.5%
- Property crime overall: down more than 12%
- Motor vehicle thefts: down 23% after surging in 2020
Overall, violent crime has fallen by more than 10 percent across the jurisdictions tracked, according to Asher’s analysis.
Big Drops in the Nation’s Most Violent Cities
Some of the sharpest improvements are showing up in cities that had become national symbols of violent crime over the last several years.
Among the standouts:
- Chicago – nearly 28% decline in murders
- Washington, D.C. – nearly 28% decline in murders
- New York City – roughly 20% decline
- Los Angeles – roughly 20% decline
Memphis, which has ranked among the most dangerous cities in the country, also recorded about a 20 percent drop in murders.
Even cities long plagued by stubbornly high homicide rates are seeing historic lows:
- New Orleans – murders down 7.5%; on pace for the fewest killings since 1970
- Detroit – fewest murders through November since 1964
- Baltimore – lowest through November since 1962
- Philadelphia – lowest through November since 1966
- Oakland – lowest through November since 1967
- San Francisco – likely the lowest since at least 1942
These are jurisdictions that, for decades, have defined urban violence in America.
Many are now experiencing levels of homicide not seen since the mid–20th century.
12,000 Fewer Murders Than During the 2020–2021 Spike
Asher estimates that, taken together, 2024 and 2025 will see roughly 12,000 fewer murders than the peak years of 2020 and 2021, the period that followed pandemic disruption, criminal-justice turmoil, and widespread unrest.
He projects around 14,000 murders in 2025, down sharply from the elevated levels of the early 2020s.
“Overall, there were likely around 12,000 fewer people murdered in the United States in 2024 and 2025 than in 2020 and 2021,” Asher said.
“That is tremendous progress that should be celebrated while acknowledging that 14,000 or so murders this year in the United States is still far too many.”
The trend continues a decline that began in 2023 after the historic spike in 2020–2021.
FBI Confirmation Will Lag, But Trend Is Clear
Official nationwide numbers from the FBI will not be released until mid-2026.
However, Asher notes that preliminary reporting from large cities, state-level data, and the RTCI all point in the same direction: a significant, sustained decline in serious violent crime.
Even with the largest drop on record, the U.S. is still dealing with thousands of homicides each year.
But the data suggest the country is moving decisively away from the pandemic-era surge and toward homicide levels more in line with, or in some cases below, pre-2020 norms.
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