With just one year to go before the 2026 midterms, CNN senior data reporter Harry Enten has issued a stark warning to Democrats hoping to take back the House during the next election cycle.
Enten dropped a “reality check” on the Democrats by revealing that the party is lagging behind historical trends, and the path to victory may not be as secure as they hope.
On Wednesday, Enten pointed out that while Democrats are currently leading Republicans by a narrow two points in the generic congressional ballot, this margin is far lower than where the party was at this time in previous midterm cycles, specifically in 2006 and 2018.
Both of those years were blue waves for Democrats.
According to Enten, the Democrats’ current position is dramatically weaker than it was in July 2005 and July 2017.
At the time, they held a solid seven-point lead ahead of midterm elections in those years.
“Democrats are behind their 2006 and 2018 paces when it comes to the generic congressional ballot,” Enten said on “CNN News Central.”
“Look at where we are now—Democrats are ahead, but by just two points. In 2017, they were ahead by seven points.
“In 2005, they were ahead by seven points.
“And now, they’re only ahead by two points?
“That lead is less than half of where it was in either 2017 or 2005, the year before the midterm elections.”
Despite President Donald Trump’s unpopularity among the Left, Enten emphasized that Democrats have failed to solidify their hold on voters at this point in the cycle.
“Yes, Donald Trump may be unpopular, but Democrats have not come anywhere close to sealing the deal at this particular point,” Enten warned.
In a further blow to Democratic hopes, Enten noted that Republicans are now leading Democrats by a remarkable 12 points when it comes to net seat pickups, a sharp contrast to previous years when Democrats held more favorable positions.
In 2007, Democrats were up by seven points, and in 2017, they enjoyed a 33-point advantage.
“When it goes seat by seat, Republicans actually have more net pickup opportunities,” Enten said.
“This doesn’t look anything like those wave elections back in 2006 or 2018.”
Looking ahead to 2024, the outlook for Democrats remains grim.
Despite a narrow two-point lead in the generic ballot in October 2024, the party may struggle to win back the House, especially after the sweeping Republican victory in the 2024 election, where the GOP reclaimed the House, flipped the Senate, and secured the White House.
Enten also highlighted the undeniable political strength of Trump, who, despite criticisms, is “more beloved” by his party’s voters than any Republican president in recent memory.
Trump has delivered on key campaign promises, such as reducing inflation, implementing policies to protect workers’ wages, and securing the U.S.-Mexico border, all actions that have bolstered his popularity among the conservative base.
WATCH:
Reality check: Dems are way behind their 2006 & 2018 pace on the generic ballot at this point in the cycle.
Ahead by only 2 pt vs. 7 pt in 2006/2018 cycles.
Seat-by-seat analysis actually reveals more GOP pickup opportunities than Dems! Very much unlike 2006 & 2018 at this pt. pic.twitter.com/CRgXukTjz6
— (((Harry Enten))) (@ForecasterEnten) July 16, 2025
Meanwhile, the Democratic Party continues to flounder with record-low approval ratings.
A CNN/SSRS poll released in March found the party’s favorability at a staggering low of just 29%, the worst approval rating since the 1990s.
A more recent Marist/NPR/PBS News poll from July 1 showed that only 27% of Americans approve of how congressional Democrats are performing, signaling a significant crisis of confidence among the American public.
As the 2026 midterms approach, the writing seems to be on the wall: Democrats are struggling to maintain momentum, while Republicans continue to surge ahead.
With the 2024 election behind them, and Trump’s hold on his party stronger than ever, it looks like the GOP could be in for another red wave that Democrats may not be able to stop.
READ MORE – Trump Calls for Jasmine Crockett & AOC to Take Intelligence Test: ‘Very Low IQ’
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