Former FBI Deputy Director Dan Bongino outlined three troubling possibilities surrounding the disappearance of Nancy Guthrie, cautioning that the lack of concrete evidence is forcing investigators to confront increasingly unsettling outcomes.
Speaking Monday night on “Hannity,” Bongino said the stalled investigation leaves authorities with few options beyond considering scenarios that fall outside a traditional ransom-kidnapping framework.
“The first possibility would be, obviously, it’s a kidnapping,” Bongino said.
“That was an intended kidnapping for a ransom payment…”
He then described a second possibility in which a separate crime spiraled into something more serious.
“The second possibility would be this was just a crime that went awry,” he said.
“Someone was at the house, maybe it was a burglary, maybe something went bad, and you’ve got some bad actors committing another crime unrelated.
“In other words, requesting a ransom for something you didn’t do just to take advantage of a situation like this.”
Bongino warned the third scenario may be the most uncomfortable: that Guthrie’s disappearance could stem from a medical emergency or other non-criminal event later misinterpreted as foul play.
He emphasized that investigators are increasingly constrained not by what evidence shows, but by what remains absent.
According to Bongino, the lack of early digital or forensic indicators commonly seen in abduction cases, such as license plate hits, cellphone data, surveillance footage, or DNA, points in only a few directions.
Either those responsible are unusually sophisticated, he said, or:
“The story you’ve been told, or you may have believed, may not be the story.”
While declining to rank the scenarios by likelihood, Bongino said each remains plausible given the investigation’s limited progress.
He also referenced analysis from veteran FBI Special Agent Lance Leising, noting that genuine ransom kidnappings typically follow recognizable patterns that have not appeared in this case.
Those situations usually involve rapid communication, direct demands, and early proof of life, markers that remain unclear here.
“At this point, I think we have to consider everything outside the box, because whatever is inside the box is not really panning out right now,” Bongino said.
Nancy Guthrie, the mother of NBC “Today” co-host Savannah Guthrie, disappeared from her Arizona home earlier this month.
Authorities have confirmed suspicious circumstances at the residence, and multiple agencies, including the FBI, are now involved in the search as national attention intensifies.
As the investigation escalated, Savannah Guthrie issued an emotional public appeal, describing the situation as an “hour of desperation” and urging anyone with information to come forward.
Law enforcement has been examining an alleged ransom note connected to the disappearance, though officials have not publicly authenticated it.
A deadline referenced in the note passed Monday night without proof of life or resolution, heightening concern surrounding the case.
With few answers emerging, Bongino said investigators are entering one of the most perilous stages of a missing-person inquiry, where assumptions can mislead just as easily as silence.
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