Texas State Rep. James Talarico (D) has taken a clear lead over U.S. Rep. Jasmine Crockett (D-TX) in the Democrat primary for U.S. Senate, according to new polling released Thursday.
The Emerson College Polling / Nexstar Media Group survey shows Talarico ahead by nine points among likely Democrat primary voters, 47 percent to 38 percent, with 15 percent undecided.
The winner will face Sen. John Cornyn (R-TX) in November.
Cornyn, meanwhile, is confronting his own challenge on the Right in the Republican primary.
Talarico, who has raised more than $13 million since launching his campaign in September, is drawing broad-based support among Democrats.
The poll found him winning just under six in 10 Hispanic voters and nearly six in 10 white voters.
Crockett dominated among black Democrat primary voters, capturing 80 percent, according to the survey.
Men favored Talarico by a 22-point margin, while women split evenly between the two candidates, said Spencer Kimball, executive director of Emerson College Polling.
A former middle school teacher, Talarico gained national attention last year.
He made headlines while joining other Texas Democrats in temporarily leaving the state to block a Republican-backed redistricting plan.
Crockett, a high-profile but polarizing figure within Democrat circles, entered the race late, jumping in during December.
Her entry reshaped the field, prompting former Rep. Colin Allred (D-TX), the party’s 2024 Senate nominee, to abandon a 2026 Senate bid and instead run for a House seat, setting up a direct head-to-head primary.
On the Republican side, Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton (R) holds a slim one-point lead over Cornyn among likely GOP primary voters, 27 percent to 26 percent.
Rep. Wesley Hunt (R-TX) sits at 16 percent, with 29 percent undecided.
“Neither Ken Paxton nor John Cornyn appears positioned to reach 50% on the primary ballot, as the Republican electorate remains sharply divided,” Kimball said.
“With Wesley Hunt gaining traction at 16%, a runoff between the two candidates now appears likely in May.”
In hypothetical general election matchups, Paxton tied both Talarico and Crockett at 46 percent.
Cornyn performed better, leading Talarico 47 percent to 44 percent and defeating Crockett 48 percent to 43 percent.
Democrats say they are optimistic about cutting into Republican dominance in Texas.
President Donald Trump carried the state by double digits in 2024.
Still, the Cook Political Report rates the Senate race as Likely Republican, just short of a solid GOP rating.
The Emerson/Nexstar survey was conducted January 10–12 among 1,165 Texas voters.
The margin of error was ±4.8 points for the 413 likely Democrat primary voters and ±4.1 points for the 550 likely Republican primary voters.
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