Rep. Elise Stefanik (R-NY) has narrowly pulled ahead of Democrat Governor Kathy Hochul in a new statewide poll ahead of the 2026 gubernatorial election.
The stunning development suggests New York’s political tides may be turning in the deep blue state.
According to new numbers released this week, Stefanik leads Hochul 43% to 42%, with 9% of respondents choosing “someone else” and 7% undecided.
The poll, conducted among registered voters across New York, shows a statistical dead heat but marks the first time in decades that a Republican has outpolled a Democratic incumbent governor in the Empire State.
Stefanik’s Team Celebrates Historic Lead
Stefanik’s communications team quickly responded to the findings, framing them as a sign of growing frustration with Hochul’s leadership.
“In a heavily Democrat-leaning state, an independent poll that is heavily weighted toward registered Democrat voters shows Republican Elise Stefanik leading Democrat Governor Kathy Hochul in a head-to-head matchup,” Stefanik’s spokesperson, Bernadette Breslin, said in a press release.
Breslin emphasized the historic nature of the result.
“It was the first time in decades that any Republican candidate for governor of New York has polled ahead of a Democrat incumbent,” she said.
The statement also took aim at Hochul’s political alliances, blasting her for aligning with far-left figures.
“In a decision that she will come to regret, Kathy Hochul lives up to her title as the worst governor in America when she chose to bend the knee and put New Yorkers LAST by desperately endorsing the defund the police, tax-hiking, raging anti-Semite socialist Zohran Mamdani, who will destroy New York.”
Rumors Swirl of Stefanik 2026 Run
While Stefanik has not formally declared her candidacy, speculation has intensified for months that she will enter the 2026 gubernatorial race.
Reports indicate an announcement could come shortly after the November 4 election, positioning her as the early Republican frontrunner.
Stefanik, who serves as House GOP Conference Chair, has built a strong national profile as one of President Donald Trump’s closest congressional allies.
Her recent surge in statewide polling underscores the growing appeal of tough-on-crime and pro-law-enforcement messaging in a state where rising crime and economic uncertainty have fueled voter frustration.
Pollsters also found 60% of registered voters statewide, including 49% of Democrats, favor returning to pre-2019 bail laws, which allowed judges more discretion in holding defendants before trial.
The issue has become a defining fault line in New York politics, with growing bipartisan concern that the state’s progressive reforms have gone too far.
Meanwhile: Mamdani Holds NYC Mayoral Lead, Faces Unpopular Policies
While Stefanik’s numbers signal Republican momentum statewide, New York City voters appear to remain firmly on the left.
Assemblyman Zohran Mamdani, the Democratic Socialist candidate for mayor, continues to hold a commanding lead in city polls despite national controversy surrounding his statements and platform.
RealClearPolitics shows Mamdani with an average 15-point lead across the last six October polls, sitting at roughly 46% support.
His advantage has grown since July, leaving former Governor Andrew Cuomo, now running under the Fight and Deliver Party, trailing by nine points.
Republican Curtis Sliwa remains in third place, 24 points behind Mamdani.
Polling data from the Manhattan Institute shows that even as Mamdani dominates in New York City, many of his proposals face widespread opposition, including his push to reduce the jail population at Rikers Island and implement free public bus service, which 58% of city respondents oppose, including 48% of Democrats.
Other survey questions covered New York’s gifted and talented education programs, tax policy, and fare evasion enforcement.
The poll was conducted between October 22 and 26 among 600 likely NYC voters and 300 statewide registered voters, weighted to reflect the general electorate.
The latest data paints a stark contrast between New York City’s entrenched left-wing politics and a statewide electorate that may be drifting toward the center, or even the Right.
If Stefanik enters the race, she could become the first Republican in a generation with a viable path to reclaiming the governor’s mansion, capitalizing on discontent with Hochul’s leadership and the state’s deepening divides over crime, cost of living, and public safety.
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