Tesla CEO Elon Musk has said that he expects artificial intelligence (AI) and robotics to advance so rapidly in the coming decades that traditional work will become “optional” for most people.
“My prediction is that work will be optional,” Musk told attendees at the recent U.S.–Saudi Investment Forum in Washington, D.C.
“It’ll be like playing sports or a video game or something like that.
The X boss continued by comparing future employment to the choice between buying vegetables at a store or growing them at home.
“It’s much harder to grow vegetables in your backyard, and some people still do it because they like growing vegetables.”
Musk said that millions of robots integrated into the workforce could drive unprecedented productivity.
The billionaire, whose estimated net worth is roughly $470 billion, has increasingly tied Tesla’s future to advanced robotics, including the Optimus humanoid robot.
Musk has claimed that as much as 80 percent of Tesla’s long-term value could come from the Optimus program, despite repeated delays.
For others, the accelerating push toward automation has raised concerns.
Analysts warn that early evidence of AI replacing entry-level work is already contributing to employment instability for younger workers.
But Musk maintains that an economy powered by robotics would make financial scarcity obsolete.
Citing the science-fiction “Culture” novels by Iain M. Banks, a self-described socialist, Musk said:
“In those books, money doesn’t exist.
“It’s kind of interesting.
“And my guess is, if you go out long enough… money will stop being relevant.”
At Viva Technology 2024, Musk floated the idea of a future “universal high income” to support a world with little or no required labor, though he has not outlined how such a system would function.
His comments parallel ideas promoted by OpenAI CEO Sam Altman, who has argued for universal basic income frameworks funded by the gains of advanced AI.
“There would be no shortage of goods or services,” Musk said at last year’s conference.
Economists Skeptical of Musk’s Timeline
Meanwhile, Economists say the type of large-scale automation Musk describes is theoretically possible but far less feasible within a 10- to 20-year timeframe.
Robotics remains significantly more expensive and harder to scale than software-based AI tools, according to economist Ioana Marinescu of the University of Pennsylvania, who co-authored a recent Brookings Institution working paper on automation.
“We’ve been at it making machines forever, since the industrial revolution,” Marinescu told Fortune.
“You often run… into decreasing returns, as it gets harder in order to make progress in a line of technology that you’ve been at… for a couple of centuries.”
Even as AI has surged, workplace adoption remains slower than anticipated.
A recent Yale Budget Lab report found no broad labor-market disruption linked to ChatGPT’s public release in 2022.
Samuel Solomon, a labor economist at Temple University, said political structures would be as critical as technological ones in any transition.
Funding a universal income system or rethinking traditional employment protections would require major political cooperation.
“AI has already created so much wealth and will continue to,” Solomon said.
“But I think one key question is: Is this going to be inclusive?
“Will it create inclusive prosperity? Will everyone benefit?”
Analysts note that existing AI-driven gains are disproportionately concentrated among major tech firms, widening the economic gap between large corporations and the broader market.
Beyond Economics, Questions About Meaning
Some researchers say the deeper challenge may be cultural rather than financial.
Anton Korinek of the University of Virginia’s Economics of Transformative AI Initiative argues that removing work from life would force a reevaluation of how people build purpose and relationships.
Humans, he said, derive meaning from social bonds, many of which are formed in workplaces.
“If the economic value of labor declines so that labor is just not very useful anymore, we’ll have to rethink how our society is structured,” Korinek said.
Musk acknowledged the same issue in remarks last year.
“The question will really be one of meaning: If the computer and robots can do everything better than you, does your life have meaning?” he said.
“I do think there’s perhaps still a role for humans in this — in that we may give AI meaning.”
READ MORE – Elon Musk Accuses Soros of ‘Trying to Destroy Civilization’
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