Rep. Jasmine Crockett (D-TX) is leading the tightly contested Texas Democratic Party Senate primary by 12 points, according to a new poll.
The shock lead was revealed in a survey from the University of Texas/Texas Politics.
The survey of likely Democrat primary voters shows Crockett with 56 percent support.
Meanwhile, state Rep. James Talarico trails at 44 percent.
The poll carries a margin of error of plus or minus 5.1 percentage points for the Democrat subset.
The result marks an expansion of Crockett’s advantage compared to some earlier surveys.
However, Talarico still holds a narrow edge in the RealClearPolling average, reflecting fluctuating momentum in the race.
High-Stakes Primary Ahead
The March 3 primary will determine the Democrat nominee to face the Republican winner in November for the Senate seat currently held by Sen. John Cornyn (R-TX).
Crockett, who has represented a Dallas-area district in the U.S. House since 2023 after serving in the Texas Legislature, has emphasized Texas’ demographic shifts, including growth in Latino, African American, and Asian American communities, as a potential pathway for statewide Democrat gains.
Talarico, who has represented an Austin-area district in the Texas House since 2018 and previously worked as a teacher, has campaigned on progressive priorities and claims he can attract some crossover support from Republicans.
Fundraising Arms Race
The race has been fueled by heavy fundraising and record-level spending.
Talarico has raised more than $20 million since entering the race in September 2025, including $7.4 million in the first six weeks of 2026 alone.
His campaign reports donations from all 50 states and every Texas county.
He ended 2025 with approximately $7.1 million in cash on hand.
Crockett, who launched her campaign in December 2025, raised roughly $6.5 million in the fourth quarter of 2025, including about $4.5 million transferred from her House campaign account, and reported $5.6 million cash on hand at year’s end.
Updated totals beyond early February have not yet been detailed publicly.
Talarico and aligned outside groups have significantly outspent Crockett on television advertising and other outreach, contributing to what observers describe as unprecedented spending in the primary.
Sharp Exchanges Inside the Party
The contest has also grown increasingly combative.
Crockett has criticized a super PAC backing Talarico for advertisements she said darkened her skin tone and questioned her electability in ways she described as racist, arguing that such tactics undermine party unity.
She has also raised concerns about a major donor connected to Talarico-linked efforts who reportedly has ties to Jeffrey Epstein.
Talarico’s campaign has denied racial intent in any advertising and clarified that reported private comments attributed to him about a former candidate related to campaign strategy rather than personal characteristics.
Crockett has said she did not expect the intensity of intra-party attacks, noting that most of her previous political battles were against Republicans.
Broader 2026 Senate Landscape
The Texas Democrat primary is one of several closely watched races nationwide.
On the Republican side, Sen. Cornyn faces a competitive primary challenge from Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton and Rep. Wesley Hunt (R-TX).
With polling volatility, heavy outside spending, and sharp internal divisions, the Texas Democrat Senate primary remains one of the most closely watched contests heading into March.
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