New Poll Spells Dooms for Jasmine Crockett in Texas Senate Race

A new statewide poll spells early trouble for Democrat Rep. Jasmine Crockett (D-TX), showing the far-left congresswoman significantly trailing her likely Republican opponents in Texas’s upcoming U.S. Senate race.

The survey, conducted by Democrat-leaning firm Change Research, found Crockett losing head-to-head matchups by eight points against both Attorney General Ken Paxton and incumbent Sen. John Cornyn.

Voters gave Paxton a 50–42 advantage over Crockett.

Meanwhile, Cornyn led 49–41.

Both margins fall well outside the poll’s three-point margin of error.

Paxton is widely viewed as the frontrunner for the GOP nomination.

However, the primary became more competitive after Rep. Wesley Hunt (R-TX) entered the race in October.

Still, the numbers suggest Crockett begins the contest with steep structural disadvantages in a state where Democrats have not won a Senate seat in more than three decades.

TEXAS POLL – SENATE

🟥 Ken Paxton: 50%
🟦 Jasmine Crockett: 42%
—
🟥 John Cornyn: 49%
🟦 Jasmine Crockett: 41%
——
TX Senate Generic Ballot

🟥 Republican: 50%
🟦 Democrat: 41%
——@ChangePolls | 11/20-26 | 1,109 RVhttps://t.co/q01tvxQQVa pic.twitter.com/JDjKro1RaR

— InteractivePolls (@IAPolls2022) December 2, 2025

Crockett Underwater with Voters

Perhaps more alarming for Democrats is that Crockett’s favorability numbers show a clear ceiling problem.

Just 33 percent of voters view her favorably, compared to 40 percent who hold an unfavorable opinion.

The issue is leaving her seven points underwater.

She also posts the highest “definitely would not vote for” number of any candidate in the survey.

A full 49 percent of respondents said they would “definitely not” support her under any circumstance.

By comparison, 44 percent said the same of Cornyn, while 43 percent ruled out Paxton.

Other Democrats fare better on basic likability even if they lack statewide recognition.

Former Congressman Colin Allred and State Rep. James Talarico, who has drawn national attention for claiming that “God is nonbinary,” both post stronger net favorability ratings among voters who know them.

Talarico holds the highest net favorability of any Democrat in the poll at +25.

A Divided Democrat Field

While Crockett has not formally announced a Senate run, she has openly indicated that she is leaning toward entering the race.

That would put her into a crowded and ideologically fractured primary.

A separate poll from the University of Houston recently found Crockett drawing 31 percent support in a hypothetical Democratic primary, giving her a narrow six-point lead over perennial candidate Beto O’Rourke and Talarico, who both sit at 25 percent.

Allred placed a distant fourth with just 13 percent.

Those numbers suggest Crockett maintains strong loyalty from progressives but remains deeply polarizing statewide, a serious liability in a general election.

Republicans See Advantage as 2026 Map Emerges

Texas remains a critical hold for Republicans as the party looks to defend a slim Senate majority in 2026.

President Donald Trump carried the state twice and remains popular among its conservative base.

Democrats, however, have repeatedly fallen short in statewide contests despite heavy national investment.

With Crockett’s early polling showing double-digit deficits among independents and nearly half the state ruling her out entirely, Democrats may face pressure to rethink their field before the primary season begins in earnest.

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