A single Supreme Court decision is expected have a major impact on which party controls the U.S. House in 2026, with the ruling expected to secure a major boost for Republicans.
The pivotal case is Louisiana v. Callais, challenging Section 2 of the Voting Rights Act of 1965.
The case may reshape congressional maps across the South and potentially net the GOP nine or more seats in the upcoming midterm elections.
During oral arguments two months ago, a majority of the conservative Supreme Court justices signaled skepticism about race-based congressional districts.
The practice is rooted in Section 2’s protections against voting discrimination based on race or color.
This provision has historically led to majority-minority districts, often benefiting Democrats in Republican-leaning states with significant black populations.
If struck down, as many as 30 districts with high black voter populations, over half in red states, could be redrawn, directly threatening Democratic Party strongholds.
Analysis from The New York Times suggests that scrapping these districts might reduce the number of Democrat-held seats in the South from 24 to half that number, with nine direct pickups for the GOP.
With the GOP clinging to a slim 220-213 House majority, and only a three-vote buffer for Speaker Mike Johnson on partisan issues, every seat counts, especially with historical midterm losses looming for the party holding the White House.
President Trump has urged GOP-led states to seize the moment with mid-decade redistricting, like Texas’s new maps that could add five Republican seats, while allies eye similar moves in Florida.
Democrats aren’t sitting idle, however.
California voters recently passed a ballot measure to redraw maps in a way that could offset Texas’s gains by bolstering Democrat seats.
Still, there’s risk even for Republicans.
Eliminating these districts might create moderate swing seats that could flip to centrist Democrats in a strong blue wave, diluting the GOP’s hoped-for edge.
Kyle Kondik, managing editor of Sabato’s Crystal Ball at the University of Virginia Center for Politics, said:
“If it comes and it completely changes our understanding of Section 2 and doesn’t protect these districts anymore, you could have a significant impact.”
Kondik’s caution is well-placed, but Democrats like Rep. Cleo Fields (D-LA), whose redrawn 6th District is at the heart of this case, might soon find their political maps looking more like a Jackson Pollock painting than a safe seat.
Others, like Rep. Troy Carter (D-LA), Rep. Jim Clyburn (D-SC), and Rep. Bennie Thompson (D-MS), face similar threats as state Republicans could reconfigure districts if Section 2 falls, while Reps. Steve Cohen (D-TN), Shomari Figures (D-AL), Terri Sewell (D-AL), and Wesley Bell (D-MO) are also on the chopping block.
“The Voting Rights Act is not a relic; it is a living promise that our democracy belongs to everyone,” stressed Rep. Carter after oral arguments.
However, conservatives might argue that Carter’s line has been stretched to prioritize partisan advantage over fair representation.
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