Renowned Wall Street data expert Edward Dowd is sounding the alarm on what he calls an unprecedented financial crisis brewing in America, one that could eclipse even the 2008 meltdown.
Dowd, a former Wall Street portfolio manager and founding partner of Phinance Technologies, oversaw a $14 billion growth equity fund at BlackRock.
He also co-authored “Cause Unknown: The Epidemic of Sudden Deaths in 2021 and 2022.”
Dowd warned in a recent interview that a “deep recession” is likely to strike in the next 6–12 months, driven by a collapsing housing market, stock crashes, job losses, and waves of bank failures.
At the core of his analysis is the consolidation of the banking system.
Dowd predicts that as smaller banks fail, the industry will consolidate into fewer, much larger institutions, a necessary precursor, he argues, for the introduction of central bank digital currencies (CBDCs).
A system of CBDC, or “digital cash,” would give government and central banks unprecedented control over personal financial transactions and behavior.
Dowd explained that while the U.S. dollar remains the “cleanest shirt in a dirty laundry,” its role as the global reserve currency is under strain.
With $17–18 trillion in dollar-denominated debt abroad, countries cannot easily escape dependence on the greenback without triggering deflationary collapse.
Still, he sees cycles aligning with what he calls “the bursting of the largest economic bubble in history.”
Meanwhile, correlations between the dollar and Bitcoin suggest that the dollar’s weakening could trigger turbulence in crypto markets, with most tokens headed for collapse.
Dowd pointed back to 2019’s repo market crisis and the massive spending spree that followed during the pandemic.
Central banks printed, governments spent, and inflation surged.
According to Dowd, the Biden administration poured gasoline on the fire by running record deficits, much of it linked to logistical operations for mass illegal immigration.
This influx, he argues, distorted normal recession indicators, especially in the housing sector.
Elevated rents masked cracks in the market, but with immigration flows reversing, those props are disappearing, setting the stage for a slow-rolling housing crisis.
Dowd likened the looming crisis to a hybrid of 2000 and 2008 combined, a bursting tech-stock bubble paired with a collapsing housing market.
He expects homebuilding stocks to plunge 30–50%, a leading signal of deeper housing turmoil, while tech-driven stock valuations are unsustainable.
“If you put all your money into stocks right here, right now, your 10-year forward returns are abysmal,” he warned.
Dowd noted that the Federal Reserve narrowly prevented a banking crisis in 2023 by bailing out institutions through the Bank Term Funding Program.
But this time, he warns, credit deterioration, from commercial real estate to private credit Ponzi finance, may be too severe for the Fed to paper over.
Regional banks could fail, paving the way for forced consolidation into megabanks.
“If you want to introduce a central bank digital currency, it’s much easier to do when there are fewer banks,” Dowd said previously.
As central banks quietly accumulate gold and prepare digital infrastructure, Dowd sees a long-term push to remonetize gold alongside experiments in tokenization and “smart contracts.”
Yet the bigger picture, he warns, is that 137 countries, representing 98% of global GDP, are already exploring CBDCs.
In a global crisis, fear and panic could be weaponized to roll them out.
A CBDC system would give elites power to dictate how quickly money is spent, what it can be spent on, and even enforce quotas on personal consumption, from food to fuel to travel, all under the guise of “climate change” or “public safety.”
Dowd warns that the looming recession, paired with a banking shake-up, is the perfect setup for this historic power grab.
“Think 2000 and 2008 combined,” he said of the coming crisis.
But this time, he argues, the endgame isn’t just about stabilizing markets, it’s about resetting the financial system itself and locking ordinary citizens into a future of digital control.
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