A new Fed report has revealed that Democrat President Joe Biden’s administration overestimated America’s recent job growth by a staggering 10,600 percent.
The Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia reported that the Biden admin’s Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) massively overestimated the number of jobs added nationwide from March through June this year.
The U.S. added just 10,500 net new jobs in the second quarter of 2022, according to the Philadelphia Fed.
The figure is a far cry from the 1,121,500 estimated by the BLS monthly report on state-level data known as the Current Employment Situation (CES).
The Philadelphia Fed used more comprehensive data from the BLS Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages (QCEW).
The QCEW data samples roughly 11 million businesses compared to the 670,000 measured by the monthly CES.
By using data from the QCEW, the Philadelphia Fed is able to make revisions to initial employment estimates, the regional bank reported.
“The large revisions occur primarily because the preliminary state estimates are based on a small sample of firms, while subsequent benchmark revisions incorporate other BLS data based on a full count from nearly all firms,” Paul Flora, Manager of Regional Economic Analysis at the Philadelphia Fed, argues in a report explaining the bank’s methodology.
“Moreover, the BLS issues its benchmark revisions for state employment estimates just once a year.
“However, the full count of data is issued quarterly, which offers an opportunity for researchers to create their own early benchmarks on a timelier basis.”
The Philadelphia Fed’s previous November 8 report revised estimates for the first quarter of 2022, measured from December 2021 through March 2022.
The first quarter report also found that the BLS had slightly underestimated job growth in that time period.
The regional bank found that the U.S. added 1,695,800 in the first quarter, compared to the 1,614,800 as estimated by the BLS.
The strength of the labor market has been a hot-button issue.
It has been touted by politicians and pundits alike throughout the year as a justification for claims that the U.S. was not in a recession.
As recently as December 14, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell described the labor market as “extremely tight.”
Powell issued a warning to Americans that unemployment will likely increase as the Fed hikes interest rates to blunt inflation.
