CNN’s data expert Harry Enten has warned Democrats that President Donald Trump will win “the election in a blowout with 312 electoral votes” if the polling this year is “like we had in 2020.”
Currently, Trump is neck-in-neck with Democrat presidential nominee Kamala Harris in multiple polls.
However, Enten said that an even race is very good for Trump.
He noted that Trump historically underperforms in polling and does far better at the ballot box.
On Tuesday, Enten explained:
“If the polls are exactly right, Kamala Harris gets 276 electoral votes to Donald Trump’s 262 because she carries those Great Lake battleground states despite losing North Carolina, Georgia, and Arizona.
“But let’s say we have a polling miss like we had in 2020.
“What happens then?” he continued.
“Well, then Donald Trump wins the election in a blowout with 312 electoral votes because he carries all these Great Lake battleground states plus Nevada, plus the other states he was leading in — Arizona, North Carolina, and Georgia.”
However, the polling could go the other way as it did in 2022, Enten said.
In that case, Harris could win the election.
“In that particular case, now, the winner has flipped again,” he said.
“And Kamala Harris wins in a blowout with 319 electoral votes.”
“So the bottom line here is, yes, we have those state polling averages,” he added.
“But the real thing they tell us is that this race is too close to call.
“We’re probably not going to know who’s going to win for another month and perhaps another month and change.”
WATCH:
Enten has made similar points about the polling in a segment from August.
The segment with Enten’s analysis can be viewed on the video report from CNN on YouTube.
In September, NBC News national political correspondent Steve Kornacki said that, despite Harris’s slim advantage over Trump at the time, the 45th president has a significant chance of victory in the electoral college.
Kornacki noted that Trump has outperformed polling expectations in both of his previous presidential elections.
“Take a look here at the last two elections, 2020, 2016, the polling at this point coming out of Labor Day, beginning the fall rush,” Kornacki told host Ana Cabrera.
“In 2016, Hillary Clinton led on average by five points. Of course, Donald Trump won in 2016.
“And Joe Biden had an even bigger lead on average, Labor Day 2020.
“Donald Trump didn’t win that election, but certainly in the electoral college, he came this close to doing so, Ana.
“So Trump has run from behind before, certainly.”
WATCH:
Steve Kornacki Says GOP 'Can Take Solace' In Trump's Polling Position As He's Used To Running 'From Behind' pic.twitter.com/daxGd9QbA6
— Daily Caller (@DailyCaller) September 3, 2024
Trump has also been gaining support from “working-class voters,” such as nonwhite Americans without college degrees and union members.
On Monday, Enten said that Harris could offset Trump’s gains with her substantial backing among college graduates, “specifically white voters with a college degree.”
