Early Voting Numbers Doom Democrats, Point to Massive Red Wave in November

Early voting numbers are already spelling doom for the Democrats as they point to a looming red wave in the November midterm elections.

As the midterms loom, Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-CA) has been trying to shame critics who think the Democrats will get swept out of power.

“We will hold the House by winning more seats,” Pelosi claimed.

“We won the 40 seats then we lost some when Trump was on the ballot (2020), we lost some of the Trump districts, but we held enough seats to hold the House with him on the ballot.

“Inflation’s an issue, but it’s global. It’s global.

“What’s the Republicans’ plan? They ain’t got nothing.

“When you bring down unemployment, inflation goes up.

“So in any case, President Biden brought unemployment down, cut it in half.

“Inflation is there but it’s global and not as bad as it is in some countries.

“We’ll have to message it better in the next three weeks ahead.

“I think we’re in great shape.

“Other people don’t want to believe that.”

“We’re going to win this election so I don’t even entertain that notion.

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“But it should be of concern to the Republicans.

“The battle for control of the House is one race at a time.

“People talk. We’re not running for president.

“We’re running one race at a time.

“All these pundits in Washington – a year and a half of you guys were saying ‘You can’t win….History says.’

“And we’re like ‘What do you mean about history says?’ We’re talking about the future,”  she said.

However, John Couvillon, the founder and CEO of JMC Analytics & Polling Campaign & Elections, called Pelosi’s bluff by comparing the early vote in 2020 to the early vote in 2022.

2020 was as close as elections get with the Democrats winning the House by just a few votes and the Senate ending in a tie.

Joe Biden barely beat Trump, as NPR’s Domenico Montanaro said, “just 44,000 votes in Georgia, Arizona and Wisconsin separated Biden and Trump from a tie in the Electoral College.”

Remember, the GOP tends to vote on election day.

So the Democrats need to clean up big in the early vote to stand a chance.

But Couvillon is seeing a surge in the GOP’s early vote, increasing by double digits in many states over 2020.

Couvillon said:


“The TURNOUT is not really the relevant number. The Dem/Rep SPREAD is. I’ll leave it at that, and post the comparison.

“Democrats are NOT voting their numbers in FL: in 2020, mail at this point was 51-29% D/R. Currently, it’s 42-39%

“In CA the GOP early vote is up 13% over 2020, In Florida 19% and in pennsylvania 19%.

“14 states updated (including decent size updates to AZ, IL, PA, and a mystery state that will be revealed tomorrow)

“40.3M requests, 47-26% D/R

“3.78M VBM, 52-30% D/R

“549K IP, 49-41% D/R

“4.33M total votes, 52-30% D/R.”

He gave some bad news to Stacey Abrams in Georgia:


“Turnout was off the charts: more than doubling from 135,593 (Day 1) to 291,740 (Day 2)

“The black % on day 1 was VERY high (38.5%) on Day 1 (this includes IP AND mail.

“However, the black % on Day 2 dropped.

“More specifically, the sustainable – my experience in the Gret Stet is that robust black turnout remains constant throughout early voting.

“Either way, this is something we’ll definitely track, since black % of the electorate in the Deep South = THE primary measure of Democratic voter intensity.”

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By David Hawkins

David Hawkins is a writer who specializes in political commentary and world affairs. He's been writing professionally since 2014.

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