New polling data have exposed a major plunge in support for Democrats among Hispanic voters.
The news is a major blow for Democrat presidential nominee Kamala Harris’s campaign as her rival President Donald Trump makes significant gains among the voter demographic.
The Cook Political Report’s database of crosstabs from polls shows that Harris currently leads Trump among Hispanic voters by an average of 12 points.
However, this is a significant drop from President Joe Biden’s 23-point lead among Hispanics in 2020.
Yet, Biden’s lead was also a huge drop from Hillary Clinton’s 39-point lead in 2016.
Ruy Teixeira, a political scientist and commentator, is warning that Democrats underestimate the “seriousness” of the problem for three reasons.
In his Liberal Patriot newsletter this week, Teixeira wrote:
“(1) they don’t realize how big the shift is; (2) they don’t realize how thoroughly it undermines the most influential Democratic theory of the case for building their coalition; and (3) they believe that any Hispanic flirtation with the GOP is merely temporary—they will “come back home” to the Democrats.”
Teixeira also noted that the U.S. Census shows that Hispanics are the largest non-white population in the nation, and growing.
Hispanics currently account for roughly 19% of the U.S. population.
African Americans are the third largest group, making up about 14%.
Harris is likely to still win Hispanics overall, just as Biden did in 2020.
However, Republicans’ continued gains among this voting bloc mean Democrats will have to make up the votes elsewhere.
The shift may explain why so many Harris ads are focused on abortion.
Even though Biden won Hispanics in 2020, President Donald Trump improved his vote share in 78 of America’s 100 majority-Hispanic counties.
Politico’s Marc Caputo noted that Trump also did better with Hispanics “in exit polls of each of the top 10 battleground states.”
“Joe Biden still won Latino voters overall,” Caputo wrote.
“But as post-election data trickles in, Democrats are growing concerned.
“Trump’s notable gains weren’t limited to Miami’s Cuban Americans or border-region Tejanos.
“Although Florida and Texas stood out for the notable shift, Puerto Ricans as far away as Philadelphia and Mexican Americans in Milwaukee drifted Trump-ward.”
The trend has continued nearly four years into the Biden administration.
Hispanic support in New Mexico dropped earlier this year due to their disapproval of Biden.
In April, polls also showed Biden’s support for Hispanics eroding.
The phenomenon has been leading to speculation Democrats could lose the critical swing states of Nevada and Arizona.
Following the 2020 election, Josh Zaragoza, a top Democrat data specialist in Arizona, explained why Hispanics are abandoning the Democratic Party.
“Most Latinos identify first as working-class Americans, and Trump spoke to that,” Zaragoza told Politico.
Zaragoza also said that Hispanic men “are very entrepreneurial.
“Their economic language is more aligned with the way Republicans speak: pulling yourself up by your bootstraps, owning your own business.”
Further, Democrats’ embrace of far-left politics can turn off Hispanic voters.
Hispanics from Venezuela and Cuba often leave their home countries to escape socialist and communist dictatorships.
According to The New York Times, Rep. Vicente Gonzalez (D-TX) warned during a Democrat conference call after the 2020 election that “Defund police, open borders, socialism — it’s killing us.”
Gonzalez added during that call that the “average white person” may think of Nordic countries when they hear the word “socialism.”
However, Asians and Hispanics associate the word with despotic “left-wing regimes.”
It appears Democrats have not learned from that call.