A leading political statistician has called on President Joe Biden to “step aside” and urged Democrats to replace him on the ticket for the 2024 election.
Several recent polls have shown that Biden is running a real risk of losing in a 2024 rematch against his 2020 rival, President Donald Trump.
That risk has set off alarm bells for numerous Democrat strategists and Biden supporters.
Now a political statistician offering a purportedly objective view has suggested that Democrats may want to consider the admittedly risky option of replacing Biden as the party nominee.
That is if they want to better their odds of winning the presidency again next year, according to the Daily Wire.
That suggestion was based on not just the recent poll numbers but also Biden’s advanced age, increasingly apparent physical and mental decline, and his reported inability to wage a “normal campaign” for re-election.
That statistician is Nate Silver, formerly of FiveThirtyEight.
Silver took to Substack this week to argue that Biden should “step aside” as a presidential candidate.
He asserts that Biden should be replaced by the Democratic Party if he is unable to run a “normal campaign” for the presidency.
“Convincing Biden to step aside would not be easy,” Silver acknowledged.
“Running a race against him if he didn’t step down would be messy, with little guarantee of who would emerge victorious other than that it might be Biden anyway, worse for battle wear.
“Then there’s the whole question of what might happen to Vice President Harris.”
“Democrats would be taking a huge risk by replacing Biden — but they’re also taking a huge risk by nominating him. There’s no getting out of this,” he continued.
Silver proceeded to take stock of President Biden’s abysmal approval numbers as well as his elderly status and decreased physical and mental capabilities.
“If Biden can’t keep up with the schedule of a typical sitting president running for re-election, or is prone to making errors when he does, voters and the media are going to notice that and Biden will wear his 80+ years like an albatross around his neck,” Silver surmised.
He also pointed to a recent media report detailing how Biden’s campaign team knows that the president is incapable of mounting a normal re-election campaign.
Instead, Biden has adapted to a sort of “Rose Garden campaign” centered in the White House.
“It would be extremely foolish to nominate an 80-year-old man who is not up to the rigors of a modern presidential campaign — even more foolish than replacing him, which just to be clear is also an extremely foolish thing to do,” Silver wrote.
“If the choices are Biden running a reasonably normal campaign or a Mystery Democrat doing the same thing, I think it’s close,” Silver concluded concerning whether or not Biden should be the Democrats’ nominee.
“But if it’s Biden running a Rose Garden campaign versus a different Democrat running a normal one, I’ll take my chances on the alternative, and Biden can join James K. Polk on the list of historically well-regarded presidents who didn’t seek a second term,” he added.
However, as the Daily Wire notes, the Biden campaign and White House have largely glossed over or summarily dismissed the growing concerns about the incumbent president’s age, declining physical and mental fitness, his reported inability to campaign like normal, and the terrible poll numbers that have come of late.
In fact, Biden is now falsely claiming to hold the lead in all or most of the leading polls, which is simply no longer the case as it was previously.
As things stand now, according to the RealClearPolitics average of polls, Trump holds a one-point margin over Biden, 45.8-44.8%.
In the nine latest polls to be included in that running average, Trump is ahead in seven of them compared to Biden holding the lead in just two of those voter surveys.