Renowned polling expert Nate Silver has warned Democrats that nominating President Joe Biden as the party’s candidate for the November election is a “terrible idea.”
Silver described running Biden for re-election as one of the “craziest asks” from voters in political history.
After the American people saw how unfit for office Biden is during last week’s disastrous debate against President Donald Trump, Silver warned that the embattled Democrat POTUS’s campaign is now “unsurvivable.”
According to Silver, it is now unfathomable that Democrats would still choose Biden as their nominee.
“I think the probability that Biden isn’t the nominee on Nov. 5 is closer to underrated than overrated,” Silver wrote Monday in a thread on X.
I think the probability that Biden isn't the nominee on Nov. 5 is closer to underrated than overrated. Probably won't involve him giving up the office rationally or easily. But there are a lot of bullets to dodge:
— Nate Silver (@NateSilver538) July 2, 2024
Silver added that Democrats face many risks in maintaining Biden as the head of the party ticket.
Biden, already the oldest president in American history, would be 86 by the end of a second term if re-elected.
Ronald Reagan, who held the record before him, was 77 when he left office in 1989.
“It’s fundamentally a terrible idea to ask the public to make the guy they saw on Thursday president until he’s 86,” Silver wrote.
He further explained that Biden leaving “[p]robably won’t involve him giving up the office rationally or easily.”
Silver wrote that while “[p]ost-debate polls,” are bad now, they will likely become even worse.
He warned that the “senior moments” from Biden are “probably unsurvivable.”
The weaker Biden’s campaign becomes, the more likely it is people will abandon the campaign, Silver warns.
The campaign is already weathering difficult calls and questions from donors.
In addition, a swelling list of liberal media figures are urging Biden to drop out of the race for fear of losing to President Donald Trump.
Silver said it was “fundamentally untenable” to nominate Biden for another four-year term.
“One of the craziest ‘asks’ in the history of American politics,” Silver said of giving Biden another term.
Silver also predicted that Trump “likely wins close calls in the Electoral College” in a showdown with Biden.
His model gives Trump more than 68% to win the election against Biden.
Silver also predicts for the first time that Trump will win the popular vote in a landslide.
Nate Silver's model gives Trump more than 68% to win the election against Biden. For the first time, Silver also predicts that Trump will win the popular vote by a wide margin. pic.twitter.com/ZXBHEgETvI
— Raylan Givens (@JewishWarrior13) June 30, 2024
Trump was solidly favored to win the White House in Silver’s first presidential election forecast last week.
The forecast was conducted before the debate where Biden’s frail, halting performance has sent donors, party members, and liberal media allies scrambling into panic mode.
Silver’s forecast model, based on 40,000 simulations, found Trump had a 65.7% chance of winning the Electoral College, compared to Biden, who had a 33.7% chance.
Biden was slightly favored to win the popular vote.
Trump lost the popular vote in 2016 but won the presidency with a slew of narrow swing state wins.
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