American voters are rejecting President Joe Biden and the Democratic Party in record numbers, according to new data that spells doom for Democrats up and down the ticket in 2022.
New data published by Gallup shows a massive swing to the Republicans in party preference during 2021.
Democrats went from a nine-percentage-point advantage in the first quarter of 2021 to a five-point deficit to the GOP in the fourth quarter.
The shift is one of the largest moves Gallup has ever seen.
This is not an isolated incident either as a Democratic consultant is also warning the party of a huge swing to the GOP from Asian voters.
The Democrats are not only losing independents and swing voters, they are losing reliable Democratic voting groups.
if these numbers hold, and they will unless Biden and Harris get a miracle, we may witness a historic red wave in 2022.
Josh Jordan broke down the new Gallup numbers: “In 2021, Republicans went from a 9 point deficit in party identification to a 5 point lead.
“If that were to hold into the 2022 midterms it would be a seismic victory on election night – this is the biggest advantage for Republicans since the 1994 “Republican Revolution.
“Yes, this Gallup poll is one poll that is still a year away from the midterm elections. That being said, the trend towards the GOP is undeniable and lines up with the 2022 generic ballot average moving about 6.5 points to the GOP since last spring, from D+5.5 to R+1 today.
“What’s interesting is that the move towards the Republican party (and away from Democrats) on Gallup is happening from every intensity level but esp independents in the middle:
- Democrat (-2)
- Dem leaning indies (-5)
- Independent (-1)
- GOP leaning indies (+4)
- Republican (+3)
In the second quarter, Democratic affiliation stayed high, while Republican affiliation began to recover, increasing to 43%.
The third quarter saw a decline in Democratic identification and leaning, from 49% to 45%, as Biden’s ratings began to falter, while there was no meaningful change in Republican affiliation.
In the fourth quarter, party support flipped as Republicans made gains, from 44% to 47%, and Democratic affiliation fell from 45% to 42%.
These fourth-quarter shifts coincided with strong GOP performances in 2021 elections, including a Republican victory in the Virginia gubernatorial election and a near-upset of the Democratic incumbent governor in New Jersey.
Biden won both states by double digits in the 2020 election.
Democratic strategist Ruy Teixeira warned the party about the swing to the GOP from Asian voters:
In 2020 there were troubling signs of attrition in Asian support for Democrats.
The Asian vote for Democratic Congressional candidates weakened in some key races, particularly in California.
And in Presidential voting in New York City, the very fast-growing Asian population in Queens swung strongly toward Trump.
Matthew Thomas on his substack analyzed the data:
Precincts where at least 50% of residents are Asian swung 12 points toward Trump, the second-largest shift among racial enclaves in Queens.
Again, the movement was larger in areas that are even more homogenous: precincts where at least 75% of residents are Asian had a pro-Trump swing of 16 points, with over a third of voters now backing the Republican nominee.
Since 2020, the danger signs have increased significantly. Consider the following:
- According to Pew, Biden has lost support twice as fast among Asian voters as among whites since July.
- In the November mayoral election in New York, once again Asian voters performed poorly for the Democrat. Thomas:
In August, I reported that…Asian areas of Queens swung heavily toward Donald Trump in last year’s presidential election, powering the best performance by a Republican nominee in the World’s Borough since 2004. Precincts that are more than 75% Asian swung toward Trump by 16 points in 2020…[A]n analysis of [this November’s] returns in combination with demographic data from the 2020 census reveals that these patterns are trickling down to local elections too.
In 2017, Bill De Blasio won Queens precincts that are over 75% Asian by 34 points against Republican nominee Nicole Malliotakis.
This week, [Eric] Adams won them by just 20 points over [Curtis] Sliwa: a 14-point swing toward Republicans.
- In the November Virginia gubernatorial election, results from the AP-NORC VoteCast survey (more reliable than the highly flawed exit polls) indicated that Virginia’s heavily Asian “other race” category, which gave Biden a strong 19 point advantage in 2020, slipped to a mere 6 point advantage for Democrat Terry McAuliffe in 2021. Republican Glenn Youngkin carried 46 percent of these voters in his upset victory.
…It is difficult to overestimate how important education is to Asian voters, who see it as the key tool for upward mobility—a tool that even the poorest Asian parents can take advantage of.
But Democrats are becoming increasingly associated with an approach to schooling that seems anti-meritocratic, oriented away from standardized tests, gifted and talented programs and test-in elite schools—all areas where Asian children have excelled.
It does not seem mysterious that Asian voters might react negatively to this approach. In fact, it would be mysterious if they didn’t.
James Hohmann of the Washington Post captured the drawbacks of the current Democratic approach well in a recent column:
Efforts to lower academic standards and scale back educational opportunities in the name of racial equity are backfiring on liberals from coast to coast, including in the bluest big cities in America.
What’s interesting is that the move towards the Republican party (and away from Democrats) on Gallup is happening from every intensity level but esp independents in the middle:
Dem leaning indies (-5)
GOP leaning indies (+4)
Republican (+3) pic.twitter.com/ski71dhCoI
— Josh Jordan (@NumbersMuncher) January 17, 2022
Democrat Strategist: The Democrats’ Coming Asian Voter Problem
“Precincts where at least 50% of residents are Asian swung 12 points toward Trump…”https://t.co/OCZNBESOl9
— Election Wizard ???????? (@ElectionWiz) January 17, 2022