California bureaucrats have admitted that the Democrat-controlled state’s data for job gains in 2023 had been fabricated.
In the past year, Democrat President Joe Biden’s administration has repeatedly been accused of faking U.S. labor market data to make the “Bidenomics” economy appear stronger than it is.
However, due to a quirk of Biden’s Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) data revision reporting, the American people won’t have definitive proof of just how bad the real job market has been in recent years.
The real figures won’t be revealed until some time in 2025, well into President Donald Trump’s likely second administration.
However, while the BLS will be able to maintain the facade of “strong job gains” under “Bidenomics” into early 2025, the dismal reality has already made an appearance in California – America’s largest labor market.
According to the latest report published by the state government’s California Legislative Analyst’s Office (LAO), contrary to prior reports of over-substantial job gains in the deep blue state in 2023, the reality was far worse.
The LAO is overseen by the Joint Legislative Budget Committee of the California State Legislature and performs and publishes extensive analyses of the state’s budget in addition to providing fiscal and policy advice to the California Legislature.
In an LAO report titled “Newest Early Jobs Revision Shows No Net Job Growth During 2023,” the agency reveals that California actually lost jobs during the fourth quarter of last year, despite previous claims of impressive gains.
The report details:
“Based on the most recent release of the early benchmarks, payroll jobs declined by 32,000 from September 2023 through December 2023.
“On the contrary, the preliminary monthly reports showed a solid increase in job growth (+117,000 jobs) at the time.”
According to the LAO, this means that “with the fourth quarter revision, calendar year 2023 saw essentially no net job growth (+9,000 jobs overall).”
For those unfamiliar with the sequence of revisions to the jobs data, here is a quick primer from the LAO:
Monthly State Jobs Estimates Are Revised Annually. Each month our office publishes the most recent state employment figures from the the Current Employment Statistics (CES) survey.
State employment figures come from this monthly survey, which is based on a small sample of businesses in the state.
As a result, once per year the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) does a benchmark revision, updating the monthly CES estimates to match more reliable administrative data from states’ Unemployment Insurance programs.
Federal Researchers Now Publishing Quarterly Revisions. Although the BLS only revises the state-level CES once per year, the underlying data used to revise the CES survey is collected quarterly.
Taking advantage of this asynchrony, in 2021, researchers at the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia began publishing state-level “early revisions” based on the same underlying data but revised more frequently.
Nevertheless, the huge delta between the previously reported, CES survey-based fake Q4 numbers and the actual, post-revision numbers is shown in the gray highlight in the chart below.
The data since January 2024 has not yet been re-benched, which means that the figure includes the Early Benchmark Revision for these recent months are growing at the same rate as the official CES estimates.
However, it is absolutely certain that once the next set of revisions comes in, California will not have generated any actual job growth for the second year in a row.
This is also expected for the rest of America.
Of course, the shocking “realization” that the soaring inflation under Biden’s economy was a complete disaster for the US labor market won’t be disclosed until well into Trump’s second term.
By then, Biden, his administration, and their catastrophic economic policies will be long gone.
